Countdown to TradeCentre: Leafs Outlook

Darren Dreger was on TSN on Thursday evening.

On how the Leafs are starting from scratch and will be trading not just by the deadline, but in the offseason and beyond:

“That's why we're splitting our percentages. For the last few weeks, we've talked about the percentage of certain players getting traded from the Toronto Maple Leafs between that point and the NHL trade deadline. We're going to expand it a little bit and push you into the draft as well."

(Board shows players' chances of being traded by the deadline or the draft, with a percentage for each: Daniel Winnik 100%/ 100%; Korbinian Holzer 85%/UFA; Tyler Bozak 60%/60%; Joffrey Lupul 60%/60%; Roman Polak 40%/40%)

"So when you look at the first five on the list, none of these names surprise you. Daniel Winnik absolutely will be traded by March 2. Korbinian Holzer, there seems to be some interest in him as a pending unrestricted free agent. Then you look at the bigger question marks: Bozak, Lupul, and Polak. The percentages there don't change because Dave Nonis and the Toronto Maple Leafs value those players now and they'll value them at the draft or in the summer. So if you want one of those three guys, then you're going to have to pay the price to acquire one of those."

(James Reimer 30%/30%; Nazem Kadri 30%/30%; Jake Gardiner 30%/30%)

"More or less it remains the same. The percentages come down in terms of James Reimer has another year left on his contract. Nazem Kadri, is he fully-developed as an NHL centre yet? Probably not. Jake Gardiner, the Toronto Maple Leafs like what they see in him long-term, so his percentage stays the same now and also in the off-season."

(Dion Phaneuf 20%/50%; Phil Kessel 20%/50%; Jonathan Bernier 20%/20%)

"Dion Phaneuf, Phil Kessel - those two guys make the most significant leap. 20 percent chance of them being traded between now and March 2. But in the off-season, you have more financial flexibility, freedom among clubs to negotiate on that type of contract. For Kessel and Phaneuf, they jump to 50/50. And Jonathan Bernier, I mean the Toronto Maple Leafs are probably more inclined to want to keep him in the mix through this transition and this rebuild. So he's still a low percentage of being traded, unless someone comes with a very substantial offer.

On what they would get for Phil Kessel:

"They're going to ask a lot, obviously, even though his contract is mammoth and the cap hit is enormous at $8 million per. He's still viewed outside of Toronto as a 40-goal scorer, so the asking price would be that first rounder, a top prospect, and potentially a young roster player as well.

"But in the opening tease, you heard me say the Toronto Maple Leafs could trade Phil Kessel today and not have to retain salary - that might be changing as we again go closer to March 2 and even in the off-season.

"When you're looking for a package as significant as the one that I've just outlined, you've got to be flexible as well. And that might include retaining some money."

On how not that many teams that could take on that kind of contract:

"It'll be a contending team that does it."

Source: TSN/ Transcript: Nichols on Hockey

Nichols on Hockey

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